Systematic Prediction Market Fund

Prediction Markets.
Aggregated Signals.

Prophecy monitors Polymarket in real time, extracts high-conviction signals from market activity, and deploys capital where outcomes look mispriced.

The superforecasting edge, systematised.

Philip Tetlock's research showed that experts beat laypeople, superforecasters beat experts, and groups of superforecasters beat any individual. Prediction markets operationalise that principle at scale: thousands of participants with skin in the game produce probability estimates that consistently outperform polls and pundits.

Prophecy watches that activity continuously, identifies persistent patterns of conviction, and trades only where the aggregated signal points to a mispricing. No single analyst. No gut feeling. A disciplined system built on observable market behaviour.

24/7

Monitoring

16+

Categories

<60s

Signal to trade

100%

Transparency

What we trade

Politics

Elections, legislation, appointments

Geopolitics

Conflicts, treaties, diplomacy

Economy

Rates, inflation, jobs data

Science & Tech

Approvals, launches, breakthroughs

Finance

Crypto and market milestones

World Events

Weather, culture, breaking news

How it works

Four stages from market activity to a risk-managed position.

1

Monitor

Ingest Polymarket activity via live WebSocket streams and periodic REST sync. Track order flow, prices, volume, and supporting news in parallel.

2

Identify

Surface high-conviction signals weighted by category strength, recency, volume, and track record. Aggregate calibrated perspectives rather than chase any single source.

3

Execute

Size positions to conviction and capacity. Every trade must pass category match, price validity, freshness, position limits, price tolerance, and liquidity checks.

4

Manage

Automated stop-loss, take-profit, position caps, and signal-reversal exits. Full P&L attribution is visible in the Brain dashboard.

1

Signal detected

2

Filters run

3

Capital deployed

4

Risk managed

5

P&L realised

Risk management

Controls are programmatic. No manual overrides, no exceptions, no emotion.

Position

  • · Stop-loss & take-profit
  • · Price tolerance (no chasing)
  • · Minimum trade size

Portfolio

  • · Max size per market
  • · Category diversification
  • · Cash reserve

Operations

  • · Dual data streams
  • · Fill-or-kill orders
  • · Full audit trail

How positions close

Market resolution Event settles on-chain. Winners pay $1; losers pay $0.
Signal reversal Conviction weakens or flips — the system unwinds.
Risk threshold Stop-loss or take-profit fires automatically.

Important disclosures

Trading prediction markets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You may lose more than your initial investment.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Systematic signals do not guarantee returns. Prediction markets face regulatory uncertainty that could affect operations or position values.

This material is informational only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or investment products.

FAQ

Short answers to the questions we hear most.

Prediction Markets

The Fund

Risk & Access

Questions?

Happy to walk through the fund in detail.

invest@prophecy.fund