Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our prediction for events in the next 30 days.

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Box Office Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Health Mentions Politics Science Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Finance resolving in the next 30 days.

Active

✓ Right so far

✕ Wrong so far

100%

Accuracy so far

Finance

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes

Ends in 2 days 22 hours

22%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 3%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No

Ends 31 Jul, 00:00 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 29%

Our view · right so far

First bought 9 weeks ago

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes

Ends 31 Jul, 00:00 UTC

98%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 48%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? Yes

Ends 31 Jul, 23:59 UTC

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 3%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by July 31? No

Ends 1 Aug, 18:00 UTC

96%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 50%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by July 31? No

Ends 1 Aug, 19:00 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 1%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

Green/red means the market has moved for/against our held outcome since entry; it is only “right/wrong so far” until the event resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Finance markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

89%

Accuracy

Finance

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will the earnings call not air? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 64%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Meta (META) close above $600 on July 6? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 53%

Our view · correct

First bought 14 weeks ago

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of June 29 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 57%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

US bank failure by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 3%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 87%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 41%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 11%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 14 weeks ago

Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $285? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

Market now

updated 28 days ago

> 75%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago