Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

80%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Mentions Politics Science SpaceX Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Finance resolving in the next 30 days.

Finance

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

43%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 70%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 38 hours ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

94%

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · right so far

First bought 1 week ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Finance markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

80%

Accuracy

Finance

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 46%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 47%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 87%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will no statement by Warsh happen during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 3%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 42%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? No

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 33%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 50%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 73%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 23%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 255M by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 16 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 64%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 55%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 76%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 29%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago