Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our prediction for events in the next 30 days.

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Box Office Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Health Mentions Politics Science Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Geopolitics resolving in the next 30 days.

Active

✓ Right so far

✕ Wrong so far

100%

Accuracy so far

Geopolitics

Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? No

Ends 31 Jul, 23:59 UTC

100%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 50%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No

Ends 31 Jul, 23:59 UTC

94%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 5%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes

Ends 20 Aug, 23:59 UTC

52%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 9%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Green/red means the market has moved for/against our held outcome since entry; it is only “right/wrong so far” until the event resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Geopolitics markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

82%

Accuracy

Geopolitics

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 84%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 30 hours ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 40 hours ago

Iran full airspace closure by July 24? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 36%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Iran full airspace closure by July 21? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? Yes

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 39%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19? No

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 45%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 34 minutes ago

> 78%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 76%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 67%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 64%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Iran full airspace closure by July 15? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 67%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 22%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 72%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 16 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 21%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 82%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 9%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 23%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 67%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 21 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 21 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 21 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Kurds declare independence from Iran? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 17%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 12 weeks ago

Iran full airspace closure by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 6%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 37%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 22 weeks ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 24%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 80%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 65%

Our view · correct

First bought 21 weeks ago

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 11 weeks ago

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 30 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 24%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 16 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 30 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 28 weeks ago

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 23%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 22 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 20 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 26 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 30 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago