Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

85%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Mentions Politics Science SpaceX Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Geopolitics resolving in the next 30 days.

Geopolitics

Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No

Ends 30 Sep, 20:59 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Israel military action against Yemen by September 30? No

Ends 30 Sep, 20:59 UTC

94%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 94%

Our view · in line

First bought 4 days ago

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

85%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

96%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 23%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 weeks ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Geopolitics markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

85%

Accuracy

Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 58%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Iran target Egypt by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 15 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 87%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 9%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 17%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 7 weeks ago

NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 84%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 67%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 73%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 18 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 19 days ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 11 weeks ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 19 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 19 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 11 weeks ago

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 19 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 19 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 29 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago