Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our prediction for events in the next 14 days.

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Box Office Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Mentions Politics Science Sports Tech Trump

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Politics resolving in the next 14 days.

Active

✓ Right so far

✕ Wrong so far

80%

Accuracy so far

Politics

Will Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes

Ends in 3 days

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 2%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 1 week ago

Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes

Ends 30 Jul, 23:59 UTC

98%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 40%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? No

Ends 31 Jul, 23:59 UTC

91%

Market now

updated about 23 hours ago

> 62%

Our view · right so far

First bought 1 week ago

Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? No

Ends 1 Aug, 23:59 UTC

37%

Market now

updated about 23 hours ago

> 24%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 days ago

Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? Yes

Ends 4 Aug, 00:00 UTC

97%

Market now

updated 43 minutes ago

> 6%

Our view · right so far

First bought 9 weeks ago

Green/red means the market has moved for/against our held outcome since entry; it is only “right/wrong so far” until the event resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Politics markets we entered that resolved in the last 14 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

69%

Accuracy

Politics

Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 32 hours ago

Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 days ago

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 80%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 days ago

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · in line

First bought 1 week ago

Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated about 19 hours ago

> 74%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 days ago

Will Keir Starmer be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? No

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 2%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 63%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Wes Streeting be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? No

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 43 minutes ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 82%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 60%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 65%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Matthew Taylor win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 16%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Beth Jones win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 23%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 12%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 80%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 4%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 5%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Julia Letlow win the Louisiana Senate Republican Primary Runoff by more than 25%? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will PH win the 2026 Johor general elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 67%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago