Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

74%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Politics Sports Tech Trump World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Politics resolving in the next 14 days.

Politics

Will United Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 16 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 14 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 16 hours

95%

Market now

updated about 22 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 16 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 16 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 6 hours ago

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? Under

Ends in 20 hours

21%

Market now

updated about 19 hours ago

> 19%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 days ago

Will Steffen Krach be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? No

Ends in 20 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · in line

First bought 12 hours ago

Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes

Ends in 20 hours

81%

Market now

updated about 22 hours ago

> 84%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 40 hours ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

100%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No

Ends 4 Oct, 00:00 UTC

75%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 80%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes

Ends 4 Oct, 00:00 UTC

98%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · in line

First bought 20 weeks ago

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes

Ends 4 Oct, 00:00 UTC

98%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 86%

Our view · right so far

First bought 17 weeks ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Politics markets we entered that resolved in the last 14 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

74%

Accuracy

Politics

Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will Green Party (MP) win at least 9% of all valid votes? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or MP? V

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will the Green Party (MP) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 70%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 63%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 79%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 75%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Left Party (V) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 56%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 95%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 91%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will Christopher Beardsley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? No

Resolved 4 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 7%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 14 weeks ago

Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 58%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 85%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 4%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 2%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: The Reservists & Blue and White Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & RZP Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: New Economic Party & Amcha Yisrael Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 24%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 64%

Our view · correct

First bought 18 weeks ago

Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? Over

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago