Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

79%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Politics Sports Tech Trump World

Current predictions

Held outcomes resolving in the next 14 days.

Business

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? No

Ends 30 Sep, 23:59 UTC

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 4%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No

Ends 30 Sep, 00:00 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 11 weeks ago

Finance

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

94%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · right so far

First bought 1 week ago

Games

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

100%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Geopolitics

Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No

Ends 30 Sep, 20:59 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Israel military action against Yemen by September 30? No

Ends 30 Sep, 20:59 UTC

96%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 94%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 days ago

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

95%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

86%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 91%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 23%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 weeks ago

Politics

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes

Ends in 23 hours

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 weeks ago

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No

Ends in 23 hours

95%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 89%

Our view · right so far

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No

Ends in 23 hours

98%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 days ago

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No

Ends in 23 hours

98%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · in line

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? Under

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

18%

Market now

updated about 16 hours ago

> 19%

Our view · in line

First bought 3 days ago

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

69%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 65%

Our view · right so far

First bought 9 hours ago

Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

86%

Market now

updated about 19 hours ago

> 84%

Our view · right so far

First bought 13 hours ago

Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election? Yes

Ends 27 Sep, 00:00 UTC

92%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 88%

Our view · right so far

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will the Tidö parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · in line

First bought 2 days ago

Sports

UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Arman Tsarukyan

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

74%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 75%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 hours ago

UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims) JooSang Yoo

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

67%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 67%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 hours ago

UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Iwo Baraniewski

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

70%

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 70%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 hours ago

UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) Charles Jourdain

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

66%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 67%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 hours ago

UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Joanderson Brito

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

79%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 79%

Our view · in line

First bought 4 hours ago

UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Ryan Gandra

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

82%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 82%

Our view · in line

First bought 1 hour ago

Tech

Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

22%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 25%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 hours ago

Trump

Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September? No

Ends 30 Sep, 23:59 UTC

77%

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 78%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 93%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

85%

Market now

updated about 3 hours ago

> 74%

Our view · right so far

First bought 5 days ago

World

Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 20 hours ago

> 75%

Our view · right so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Uncategorized

Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No

Ends in 23 hours

86%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 90%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 16 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

95%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 97%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 1 week ago

Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · in line

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

96%

Market now

updated about 20 hours ago

> 93%

Our view · right so far

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 88%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Adygea Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 95%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 20 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 98%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? No

Ends 30 Sep, 23:59 UTC

97%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 93%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Trump out as President by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

99%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · in line

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

100%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 10 weeks ago

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

54%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 70%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 37 hours ago

Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

92%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 87%

Our view · right so far

First bought 1 week ago

Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30? No

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

85%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 85%

Our view · in line

First bought 5 weeks ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

All markets we entered that resolved in the last 14 days.

169

Resolved

134

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

79%

Accuracy

Crypto

LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 73%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Culture

Will Apple TV win the most Emmys? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 days ago

Economy

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 73%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 22%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 3 days ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Finance

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 46%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 47%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 87%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will no statement by Warsh happen during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 3%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 42%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? No

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 33%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 50%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Games

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B Alliance

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No

Resolved today

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 58%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Politics

Will Green Party (MP) win at least 9% of all valid votes? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No

Resolved today

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or MP? V

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Green Party (MP) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 days ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 70%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 63%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 79%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 75%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Left Party (V) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 56%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 95%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 91%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will Christopher Beardsley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 4 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 7%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 13 weeks ago

Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will John Kiper win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 58%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 85%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 4%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 2%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: The Reservists & Blue and White Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & RZP Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: New Economic Party & Amcha Yisrael Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 24%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 64%

Our view · correct

First bought 18 weeks ago

Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%? Over

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will NRPUP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 11 weeks ago

Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will CF win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 8 weeks ago

Sports

Will Max Verstappen Win Max vs 100? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 59%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Drakkar Klose vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) Tommy Gantt

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (Welterweight, Prelims) Ignacio Bahamondes

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card) Joseph Morales

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 52%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 days ago

Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Tim Elliott

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Noche UFC: JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Regina Tarin

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 72%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu (Lightweight, Prelims) Rongzhu

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 61%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad Naimov vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Main Card) Losene Keita

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

UFC Fight Night: Trevor Peek vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Prelims) Kurtis Campbell

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Main Card) Farés Ziam

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 59%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card) Felipe Lima

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 65%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

UFC Fight Night: Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Nora Cornolle

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

UFC Fight Night: Sofia Montenegro vs. Delphine Benouaich (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Delphine Benouaich

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 57%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Tech

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 68%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 40%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 71%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Trump

Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 15%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in September? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Uncategorized

What will be the next Fed rate change? Hike

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 4%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 23 weeks ago

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 56%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 49%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 69%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 2%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 11 weeks ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 52%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 71%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 80%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 82%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 days ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton

Resolved 4 days ago

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 11%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 5 days ago

LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 80%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? No

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 66%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 60%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

LAPTOP FDV above $2B one day after launch? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 76%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 74%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 67%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 9 days ago

> 72%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 10 days ago

> 18%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? Yes

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Lacy and Marlon beat the gaming challenge by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 11 days ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 59%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Lacy and Marlon have between 50 and 99 Warzone deaths during the marathon? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 56%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 12 days ago

> 90%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Indiana lions in custody by September 4, 2026 11:59 PM ET? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 13 days ago

> 95%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 14 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago