Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

74%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Culture Economy Finance Geopolitics Politics Sports Tech Trump

Current predictions

Held outcomes resolving in the next 7 days.

Politics

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes

Ends in 23 hours

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 weeks ago

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No

Ends in 23 hours

95%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 89%

Our view · right so far

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? No

Ends in 23 hours

98%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 4 days ago

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No

Ends in 23 hours

98%

Market now

updated about 12 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · in line

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? Under

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

18%

Market now

updated about 16 hours ago

> 19%

Our view · in line

First bought 3 days ago

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

69%

Market now

updated about 4 hours ago

> 65%

Our view · right so far

First bought 9 hours ago

Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

86%

Market now

updated about 19 hours ago

> 84%

Our view · right so far

First bought 13 hours ago

Sports

UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Arman Tsarukyan

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

74%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 75%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 hours ago

UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims) JooSang Yoo

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

67%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 67%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 hours ago

UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Iwo Baraniewski

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

70%

Market now

updated about 11 hours ago

> 70%

Our view · in line

First bought 11 hours ago

UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) Charles Jourdain

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

66%

Market now

updated about 13 hours ago

> 67%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 12 hours ago

UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Joanderson Brito

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

79%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 79%

Our view · in line

First bought 4 hours ago

UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Ryan Gandra

Ends in 1 day 3 hours

82%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 82%

Our view · in line

First bought 1 hour ago

Uncategorized

Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No

Ends in 23 hours

86%

Market now

updated about 8 hours ago

> 90%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 16 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

95%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 97%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Nizhny Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 1 week ago

Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · in line

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

96%

Market now

updated about 20 hours ago

> 93%

Our view · right so far

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 100%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 19 hours

97%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 99%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated about 9 hours ago

> 88%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will United Russia win the next Adygea Parliament elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 5 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · right so far

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 95%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

99%

Market now

updated about 20 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · right so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Yes

Ends in 1 day 23 hours

96%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 98%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 8 weeks ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

All markets we entered that resolved in the last 7 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

74%

Accuracy

Culture

Will Apple TV win the most Emmys? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 89%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 days ago

Economy

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 94%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 73%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 22%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 3 days ago

Finance

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 6 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 7 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 46%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 47%

Our view · correct

First bought 10 weeks ago

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 87%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will no statement by Warsh happen during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 3%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 42%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? No

Resolved 3 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 33%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Geopolitics

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? No

Resolved today

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 58%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? Yes

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Politics

Will Green Party (MP) win at least 9% of all valid votes? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No

Resolved today

Market now

updated about 17 hours ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or MP? V

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Green Party (MP) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 days ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 70%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 63%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 79%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 75%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will the Left Party (V) win seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 56%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 95%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 91%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will Christopher Beardsley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 96%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? No

Resolved 4 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 7%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 13 weeks ago

Sports

Will Max Verstappen Win Max vs 100? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 81%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 days ago

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 59%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Drakkar Klose vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) Tommy Gantt

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (Welterweight, Prelims) Ignacio Bahamondes

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card) Joseph Morales

Resolved 5 days ago

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 52%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 6 days ago

Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Tim Elliott

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 83%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 days ago

Noche UFC: JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Regina Tarin

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 72%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Noche UFC: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu (Lightweight, Prelims) Rongzhu

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 61%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Tech

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 1 hour ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 2 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 21 hours ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 68%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 40%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 71%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Trump

Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026? Yes

Resolved 6 days ago

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 15%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 3 weeks ago

Uncategorized

What will be the next Fed rate change? Hike

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 78%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 55%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 4%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 1%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 66%

Our view · correct

First bought 23 weeks ago

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 56%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes

Resolved 1 day ago

100%

Market now

updated 1 day ago

> 49%

Our view · correct

First bought 17 weeks ago

Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 30%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 8 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 69%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 2%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 11 weeks ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 52%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 71%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 80%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 days ago

Will Marco Rubio give the next White House press briefing? No

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 days ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 3 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? No

Resolved 2 days ago

Market now

updated 2 days ago

> 82%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 days ago

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026? No

Resolved 3 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton

Resolved 4 days ago

Market now

updated 4 days ago

> 11%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 5 days ago