Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our held predictions approaching resolution, with the record of what happened next.

Open predictions

Right so far

Wrong so far

100%

Resolved accuracy

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Mentions Politics Science SpaceX Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Tech resolving in the next 30 days.

Tech

Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? Yes

Ends 1 Oct, 03:59 UTC

22%

Market now

updated about 10 hours ago

> 25%

Our view · wrong so far

First bought 9 hours ago

These are open predictions — outcomes are not scored until the market resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Tech markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

100%

Accuracy

Tech

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 3 hours ago

> 88%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? Yes

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 3 hours ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 22 hours ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 5 days ago

> 68%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 40%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 27%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? No

Resolved 5 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 71%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 6 days ago

> 91%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? No

Resolved 6 days ago

100%

Market now

updated 7 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 9? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 64%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago

Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? No

Resolved 2 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 17 days ago

> 56%

Our view · correct

First bought 6 weeks ago

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? No

Resolved 4 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 28 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 5 weeks ago