Our prediction record

Event Horizon

Our prediction for events in the next 30 days.

Resolution window 7 days 14 days 30 days

Category All Box Office Business Crypto Culture Economy Finance Games Geopolitics Health Mentions Politics Science Sports Tech Trump Weather World

Current predictions

Held outcomes in Tech resolving in the next 30 days.

Active

✓ Right so far

✕ Wrong so far

100%

Accuracy so far

Tech

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes

Ends 31 Jul, 00:00 UTC

79%

Market now

updated about 23 hours ago

> 36%

Our view · right so far

First bought 5 days ago

Green/red means the market has moved for/against our held outcome since entry; it is only “right/wrong so far” until the event resolves. Market prices are implied probabilities, not guarantees.

Historical performance

Tech markets we entered that resolved in the last 30 days.

Resolved

✓ Right

✕ Wrong

84%

Accuracy

Tech

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? No

Resolved today

100%

Market now

updated about 23 hours ago

> 76%

Our view · correct

First bought 1 week ago

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? No

Resolved 1 week ago

100%

Market now

updated 8 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 2 weeks ago

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 20 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 21 days ago

> 54%

Our view · correct

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 21 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 92%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 61%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 84%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 93%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 82%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 85%

Our view · correct

First bought 3 weeks ago

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 99%

Our view · correct

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 79%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 23 days ago

> 98%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 13 weeks ago

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 86%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 97%

Our view · correct

First bought 12 weeks ago

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 14%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 9 weeks ago

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 100%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

100%

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 75%

Our view · correct

First bought 4 weeks ago

Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No

Resolved 3 weeks ago

Market now

updated 25 days ago

> 62%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

Market now

updated 24 days ago

> 17%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 7 weeks ago

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes

Resolved 4 weeks ago

Market now

updated 27 days ago

> 7%

Our view · incorrect

First bought 4 weeks ago